Problem Solving and the Black Swan [Matt Schlegel]

In past blogs I have described the importance of creating a clear statement of the problem before you jump into a problem-solving project. The challenge with creating this problem statement is that not everyone has the same problem. In fact, during good times the types of problems that people have grow diverse and less severe. Then, in flies the Black Swan, a disruptive event that impacts a great number of people. This event presses the problem-solving reset button.

In The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes the impact of infrequent events. Taleb calls such an infrequent event, “a Black Swan.” In terms of problem solving, the impact of a Black Swan event is clear – a large number of people come to share a common problem. Whatever smaller issues those people may have faced before, there is a huge problem in front of them that many must address.

In the corporate world, a Black Swan event may be any number of situations: the departure of an important leader, customer or vendor; the restructuring of a division; a merger or acquisition of another company. The list goes on and on. Any of these events gets the attention of everyone in the company and creates a natural urge to want to help solve the problem.

The great news about a Black Swan event is that it gets everyone focused and working together. In large organizations this is hard to do, but when it does happen, seemingly miraculous accomplishments can occur. For instance, once Apple was at the brink of bankruptcy in the 1990’s, the company became very focused on its “core” values and has thrived every since.

When people share a common problem, they are naturally compelled to work together to solve that problem. The important first step of any problem-solving process is the creation of a clear problem statement. Black Swan events grab everyone’s attention and help create a common problem for all. As if a reset button were pressed, it brings everyone to the first step in the problem-solving process. As organizations get larger and larger, these Black Swans can perform an important function in re-aligning people and creating a common problem statement. With that common problem, people focus their energy and overcome even the most difficult challenges. Today, as I reflect on the US and how divided the nation has become and remains, I wonder what Black Swan will cause us to focus our energies again.
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Matt Schlegel developed his problem-solving methodology over the past decade. He continues to use the process to help companies solve big challenges, and folds those experiences into the refinement of the process. He also consults for companies developing products jointly with Asian companies. Matt can be found at www.sakinoconsulting.com.